Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.993347 15.977485 18.103408 20.546091 23.270436 26.210644 29.618995
2025-10-12 11.063568 13.772687 16.891570 20.728843 25.302637 30.558544 37.032823
2025-10-19 9.436461 12.426747 16.032367 20.664950 26.420128 33.293102 42.075919
2025-10-26 8.096103 11.227677 15.166549 20.428923 27.212073 35.591884 46.648452
2025-11-02 7.175984 10.410625 14.630612 20.460321 28.213172 38.067067 51.419131
2025-11-09 6.471110 9.785803 14.257251 20.624352 29.332573 40.684221 56.431420
2025-11-16 5.805352 9.132504 13.764914 20.551201 30.077662 42.788902 60.805694
2025-11-23 5.204956 8.504747 13.240029 20.366272 30.618007 44.598043 64.812794
2025-11-30 4.778799 8.087845 12.970484 20.501528 31.579081 46.984611 69.662751
2025-12-07 4.514767 7.889876 12.997372 21.051752 33.136981 50.239725 75.818015
2025-12-14 4.082360 7.382488 12.512259 20.793015 33.479412 51.762221 79.557753
2025-12-21 3.567485 6.689955 11.682958 19.942747 32.874361 51.864361 81.226898
2025-12-28 3.404966 6.580076 11.777065 20.548286 34.524796 55.363698 88.026084
2026-01-04 3.213623 6.402701 11.746984 20.950038 35.874931 58.466509 94.355406
2026-01-11 2.941291 6.053661 11.401256 20.807128 36.344505 60.236156 98.723562
2026-01-18 2.685012 5.708369 11.033436 20.597460 36.684111 61.803118 102.820045
2026-01-25 2.491296 5.460987 10.814626 20.619123 37.388777 63.947869 107.860023
2026-02-01 2.337255 5.274879 10.688892 20.787850 38.334760 66.495041 113.597600
2026-02-08 2.161937 5.029259 10.435709 20.712913 38.858892 68.375717 118.331703
2026-02-15 1.987666 4.768206 10.133289 20.527174 39.176206 69.920591 122.564401
2026-02-22 1.868990 4.611202 10.014398 20.663195 40.047565 72.390200 128.350213
2026-03-01 1.808487 4.572943 10.120373 21.217242 41.670717 76.151398 136.345715
2026-03-08 1.660642 4.328473 9.803559 20.956715 41.828374 77.457501 140.331764